<rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:trackback="http://madskills.com/public/xml/rss/module/trackback/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"><channel><title>original</title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/category/18.aspx</link><description>original</description><managingEditor>李文</managingEditor><dc:language>zh-CHS</dc:language><generator>.Text Version 0.958.2004.214</generator><item><dc:creator>李文</dc:creator><title>太原话四级考试试卷</title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/10855.aspx</link><pubDate>Fri, 30 Sep 2005 06:11:00 GMT</pubDate><guid>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/10855.aspx</guid><description>&lt;p&gt;弘扬三晋千年文化，创造方言再度辉煌！&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;注：本试中方言均为音译&lt;br /&gt;1．“球迷性眼”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A.球迷的视力很好 B.球迷的视力很差 C.德性样儿 D.形容人很可爱&lt;br /&gt;2．“猴鸡割梭”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A．猴和鸡狼狈为奸 B.形容事物或人猥琐 C.形容人聪明灵巧 D.猴鸡不合&lt;br /&gt;3．“合操五烂”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A．是一种山西面食 B.事情进展慢 C.遇到困难应该坚持 D.肮脏，不整洁&lt;br /&gt;4．“求毛鬼胎”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A．形容人吝啬，小气 B.人心怀鬼胎 C.乞求神灵保佑 D.龌龊&lt;br /&gt;5．“歌捞捞”是房屋的哪个位置：&lt;br /&gt;A．书房 B.屋顶 C.角落 D.客厅&lt;br /&gt;6．“夜天”是哪一天：&lt;br /&gt;A．昨天 B.今天 C.明天 D.后天&lt;br /&gt;7．“希荒”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A．失去希望 B.可怜 C.荒凉 D.充满希望&lt;br /&gt;8．“起三”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A．早晨三点起床 B.晚上三次起夜 C.一家三口 D.有出息&lt;br /&gt;9．“桑”在以下哪个场合最常使用：&lt;br /&gt;A．吵架时 B.运动时 C.浇花时 D.养蚕时&lt;br /&gt;10．“马怕”是：&lt;br /&gt;A．一个词组 B.一个副词 C.介词 D.形容词&lt;br /&gt;11．“泼散”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A．泼水 B.不吉利 C.人心散了，队伍不好带了 D.一种中药&lt;br /&gt;12.“地懂”的意思是：&lt;br /&gt;A.一种迷信语言 B.祭祀 C.形容土质良好 D.反应&lt;br /&gt;13.下列哪个不是太原话中常用的语气词：&lt;br /&gt;A.嘛 B.哇 C.咧 D.了&lt;br /&gt;14.太原话中“各榄”是什么形状的物体：&lt;br /&gt;A.球状物 B.棒状物 C.带状物 D.粉末状&lt;br /&gt;15．“腰腰”是一种什么服饰：&lt;br /&gt;A.短裤 B.马甲 C.背心 D.大衣 &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;太原话四级考试试卷 (加试题)&lt;br /&gt;16、“机迷”是指： &lt;br /&gt;a 有关飞机的迷 b 聪明 c 可爱 d 知道，晓得 &lt;br /&gt;17、 看见一个可爱的小姑娘，你会夸她： &lt;br /&gt;a 增切他了 b 真二了c 可啊匝了d 乃秋了 &lt;br /&gt;18、 两个人打架，双方互相打了对方一个（） &lt;br /&gt;a 得脑 b 比斗 c 蹦楼头 d 米林骨 &lt;br /&gt;19、 “外货”是指： &lt;br /&gt;a 从外国进的货 b 叫外卖 c 那个人 &lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src ="http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/aggbug/10855.aspx" width = "1" height = "1" /&gt;</description></item><item><dc:creator>李文</dc:creator><title>microsoft的那个漂亮的图片循环播放效果：）</title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/1899.aspx</link><pubDate>Tue, 03 May 2005 11:09:00 GMT</pubDate><guid>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/1899.aspx</guid><description>&lt;div style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #e6e6e6; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4px; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 98%; WORD-BREAK: break-all; PADDING-TOP: 4px; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid"&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;var&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;i&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;,&amp;nbsp;mytimeout;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;HelpArray(len)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;{&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;this&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;.length&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;len;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;}&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;//&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;HelpText&amp;nbsp;=&amp;nbsp;new&amp;nbsp;HelpArray(3);&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;//&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;HelpText[0]&amp;nbsp;='';HelpText[1]&amp;nbsp;='';HelpText[2]&amp;nbsp;='';&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;HelpText2&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;new&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;HelpArray(&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;);&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;HelpText2[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;]&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;lt;img&amp;nbsp;border='0'&amp;nbsp;src='images/ad/ad20050503002.gif'&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;HelpText2[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;]&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;lt;img&amp;nbsp;border='0'&amp;nbsp;src='images/ad/ad20050503003.gif'&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;HelpText2[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;]&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;lt;img&amp;nbsp;border='0'&amp;nbsp;src='images/ad/ad20050503001.gif'&amp;gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;function&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;playHelp()&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;{&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;if&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;(i&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;==&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;)i&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #0000ff"&gt;else&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;i&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;++&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;//&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;div1.filters[0].apply();&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;//&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;div1.innerHTML&amp;nbsp;=&amp;nbsp;HelpText[i];&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;//&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;div1.filters[0].play();&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #008000"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;div2.filters[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;].apply();&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;div2.innerHTML&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;HelpText2[i];&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;div2.filters[&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;0&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;].play();&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;mytimeout&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;=&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;&amp;nbsp;setTimeout('playHelp()',&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;10000&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="COLOR: #000000"&gt;);&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="/Images/OutliningIndicators/None.gif" align="top" /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;}&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;img src ="http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/aggbug/1899.aspx" width = "1" height = "1" /&gt;</description></item><item><dc:creator>李文</dc:creator><title>旅游产业的未来（翻译练习全文）</title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/1243.aspx</link><pubDate>Sat, 12 Mar 2005 13:08:00 GMT</pubDate><guid>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/1243.aspx</guid><description>&lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;寓言通常是危险的。但是很容易看出，既然迁徙这种人类的原始欲望越来越容易实现，而且那些闲暇的假期又能满足这种需求，旅游产业也就不会在未来衰退。不仅旅游的人数预计会在未来的&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;20&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年里翻番，而且产业所需雇佣的人员和参与其中的国家地区的数量都会顺应增长。似乎人们对旅游业负面效应的进一步认识也不能遏制其绝对的发展势头。市场的进入者仍然络绎不绝。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;到&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;2007&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年，全世界的旅游雇佣人数可望增长&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;46%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;。世界旅游组织预测到&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年全球旅行人次将是&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1996&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年的&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;倍，其中每年将有&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;16&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;亿境外旅行者。他们旅行所带来的收益将达到&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;兆美元。尽管德国，美国，意大利，日本和英国仍是当今世界头号旅游消费市场，然而根据&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;WTO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;数据，排名第四的中国和第九的俄罗斯将加入这个阵营。此外，中国被普遍认为将成为世界首要旅游目的地。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;当然，像中国，俄罗斯和南非这样的国家既作为需求增长地又为旅行目的地，如果能够在充分吸引境外旅游的同时成功开发其国内旅游产业的话，他们有望在旅游市场的份额中从&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1995&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年的&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;18%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;增长到&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年的&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;24%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;，并且给所谓世界旅游地已经饱和到无法容纳旅行者的说法当头一击。因为，虽然当前的世界旅游地确实已经人满为患，但仍有如此广阔的地区从未见过一位观光者。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;不过，应该慎视这些数据。由于未将西方经济衰退因素纳入考虑因素，&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;WTO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;过去的预报都过于乐观（或者说太悲观，要看你自己的利益出发点了）。当然我们不能指望预测组织成为千里眼，如果将政治经济等综合因素考虑在内，尽管无法实现理想的指数型增长，旅游业仍会健康秩序的发展。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;有些不确定因素我们需要审视&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;: &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;一是战争和恐怖主义不会在近期停止&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;我们可爱的资本主义本质所决定的&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;, 2020&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年前世界部分地区仍会同经济衰退萧条有不解之缘。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1997&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年底的亚洲金融崩溃会对当地居民的旅游习惯造成不利影响。事实上，这导致了全球超过&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;50&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;万旅游业工作者失业。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;另一方面，其他地方的政治动荡也会影响旅行者数量和市场开展。比如不断的伊斯兰主义复苏也会造成这样的影响？尽管伊斯兰对观光者并没有敌意，但是某些开发和动作却会招来他们的不悦之色。巴尔干半岛的种族仇视依然继续。想逃逸到希腊或者土耳其吗？如果经济不平衡加剧，种族流亡者的加入会备受白眼在北方是因为贫穷，在南方是因为饥荒。当评估旅游产业发展的时候确实有必要综合考虑政治和经济因素，这是进一步的例证。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;整合世界经济及其伴随的政治方面资本主义扩张等因素的相应高水平预报确实能论证工业化是怎样使人口趋向于迁徙。如果至此有了一个人类迁徙规则，那么很自然，当越来越多的人在政治经济条件允许的条件下能够旅行，游客的级数便会开始膨胀。问题是未来他们的旅行者是否会如同他们的前辈那样按预测规则中相同的形式行事并且产生相同的影响。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;=&amp;gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;游客产生发展周期&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;很多地方都提及了“新旅游业”这个词。市场进一步细分，产品组合越来越复杂，自助旅行越来越平常并且游客消费心理日渐成熟。西方的人口进步和社会变迁也产生了新的富裕者和领年金者，年老的单身汉，没有小孩（也因此更加富裕）的同性恋夫妻。一些游客已经意识到环境问题并且在避免去污染了的景点，他们敦促业主和管理方采取相应措施以得到持续发展。所以“壁橱”式的产品为了迎合除海滨假日外的需求也有所成长。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;IT&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;技术的进步推动了这一发展。然而有一点是确信无疑的，那些来自旅游资源国度的游客一定会以这种进步的方式游览风光，至少开始是这么做的。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;尽管西欧游客更趋向与独立旅行，但东欧人还相当的局限自己于选择假日产品组合。中东欧的旅行社发展迅速而且景点运营者纷纷为地中海同胞们提供&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1970&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年代风格的产品。在后种族隔离时代的南非，新兴的&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;3S(sun, sea, sand)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;市场在黑种人群中成长，而这些已经在白人社会中进入疲软状态。由于文化和经济背景的原因（对于集体性社会团队旅游似乎是首选），当中国人成长为为数众多的游客，他们也会首先体验团队旅行。也就是说，随着新兴游客客户的产生，一个大规模的旅游发展周期已经来到，这些游客需求还没有细分化和多样化产生（并且这个周期可以从“新旅游业”的经验中复制）。当越来越多的初次旅行体验者出现，这种模式复制的存在可能会发生并且不断增长。一方面，这提供了一个从环境和社会过去的错误中吸取教训的机会；另一方面，资本主义特性所决定的短期利润的需求会鼓励忽略这种错误。这个“足可支撑”的产业框架便是最有钱途的关注焦点。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;=&amp;gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;监管政策&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;如果经济的大背景要敦促旅游业的发展，那么还有什么其他的因素会限制它吗？它们会此消彼长吗？&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;限于篇幅，我们在这里只讨论一种可能性：“旅游犹太人区”的成长，这可能最终包括外太空。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;=&amp;gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;旅游犹太区：老瓶盛新酒？&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;之前我们讨论了大规模的旅游业在新生旅游国家中已经进入一个新的轮回周期。甚至在西方也有这种现象，但总遮遮掩掩时隐时现：英国&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1994&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年团队旅行较前年同比激增&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;40%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;，这样归功于景区运营方的价格大战。更有趣的是，一些新的形式正是将旧的模式运用到新产品中，只不过这种形式表面做的比较隐匿。游艇便是其中之一。在&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1960&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年代美国游艇工业只是一个垂死挣扎的工业，只对少数富人有吸引力。就像一次性飞机引擎一样无人亲睐。但到了&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1990&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年代，它却成为成长最快的旅游项目之一，这是一般只有最广受认同的产品才能达到的成果。除了改变游艇的组合模式和营销策略，公司开始将渗透市场目标定位于&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;18&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;到&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;30&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;岁年龄层次的三口之家。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1974&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年“狂欢节游艇专线”以着这些有趣的游艇为载体进入了市场，概念。这个想法为船儿应该应该是全包景点的两倍，根本无需注意它会停靠在哪个港口，事实上这是一个非常大的成功。确实，有些时候，船儿已经成为假日的移动帐篷，可以漫无目的的在海上漂来漂去，但是在上面还能搞些有组织的聚会，设个游泳池还有甜美的海上夜生活。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;相似的景点泡沫还有陆地上面的，在欧洲以中央圆顶四周篱笆的方式，&lt;/span&gt;&lt;?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /&gt;&lt;st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="5600" UnitName="平方米"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;5600&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;平方米&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/st1:chmetcnv&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;的“热带雨林”在内布拉斯加，日本水上公园提供漫无边际的海滩和一浪接一浪的海水。如果访问美国迪斯尼连锁，日本和法国也建设了同样的美好假日。也就是说，很多人在选择呆在人工假日中心，或者犹太人区，这就是&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;Krippendorf&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;鼓吹的避免生态社会问题的旅游完美解决方案。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;这种人工娱乐中心确实为一部分游客提供了游乐之地，保护了景区原著居民们免受过多骚扰也无需防范环境退化。文化掠夺也能靠对虚幻的疯狂得到限制，如果那些志愿的连锁复制了国王峡谷和英国史前巨石柱。一个露天的收藏将近&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;50&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;个世界上自然或人工奇迹的“博物馆”已经在中国深圳建成。然而，犹太区的游客们自身又衍生出进一步的问题。虽然他们为当地人提供了就业职位，但是他们完完全全、的的确确像在某艘有趣的船上&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;--&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;它限制了你到中心外面花钱。而且这些类似于迪斯尼和&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;Center Parcs&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;的连锁可以处理掉自己生产的废品，但游艇不能，当他们看着目的地绕来绕去的同时只徒增污染伤害和社会经济压力。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;&lt;o:p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;也许解决未来旅游人数过多的一个办法是直接将部门游客送到这个星球外面去，也带着他们的负面效应去（尽管污染又会在午餐店中产生）。问题是谁也无法预测什么时候买个太空旅游会像&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1960&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;年代飞机票价一样平易近人。这可能只有在意外风险的几率（目前车辆的几率是&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span lang="EN"&gt;1/280&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"&gt;，太空飞船）降低到适合商业宇航之后才能实现。当操作可以自动执行或者让经过训练的飞行员能够意识到外太空有多危险，实现如此安全性能的花销和技术上的困难才会被考虑。好了，这种设想的思维陷阱是很难跳出来的。总之，外太空在起码的最近几年里是不可能解决地球的旅游产业问题了。&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src ="http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/aggbug/1243.aspx" width = "1" height = "1" /&gt;</description></item><item><dc:creator>李文</dc:creator><title>一篇令人忿忿的blog与我的回复</title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/1033.aspx</link><pubDate>Mon, 28 Feb 2005 05:51:00 GMT</pubDate><guid>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/1033.aspx</guid><description>&lt;p&gt;我很佩服他，他毕业于名牌大学，是微软部门经理级的员工，他是blog界的名人。但是我很惊讶于他发的这篇文章&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Life in a Low Cost Labor World&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Living in a world where labor cost is relatively low - especially those low end labor like Ayi cleaning or Express man, is very different from the developed country.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Some people suffer from the absence of effective and secure way to transfer goods. The EMS by China Post Service sucks. A package from Shanghai to Changsha cost me 3 days. It is not even a guaranteed delivery time, while UPS or Fedex can deliver the same package to any large cities in the world in 24 hours. The surface mail with 0.60 RMB postage is worse. It is something like UDP package in the TCP/IP protocol - you send it but there is no guarantee that the package will be received. :-D&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;However, other people are enjoying the low cost delivery already if the destination is at the same city. It is called Kuai Di or the Express man. The market price for a common service is 5 RMB per delivery. They ride motor-cycle or even electronic empowered bicycle. They are flexible enough to deliver the good to everywhere - even somewhere without an address - they can find it by calling the recipient. :-) Express man has been the standard department for many organizations, no matter foreign-owned or small private business. The typical scenario is: "Hey. I have the contract OK. I can ask my Kuai Di to deliver it to you or you ask yours to come to my office to pick it up?"&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ayi is another good service that is not comparable in any city in the world. Due to the high demand, the large supply (many woman come to Shanghai and pick Ayi to be their first job), it has been a very powerful business. The standard price for one hour of work is 5 RMB in Xuhui district, and it is 7 RMB in Pudong (Why? I guess more Ayi wants to work in Puxi)&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;You can ask them to help - from cleaning the house to taking care of the baby, from cooking dinner to doing the repeatable work. It is quite amazing how Ayi changed the life of people in Shanghai. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ayi as an occupation can be classified as servant in modern terms. But they are more flexible. They are paid by hour and one Ayi can serve more than one family or company at the same time. It is highly commercialized industry. Many companies hire Ayi to keep the office clean, serve teas, and help employees on their personal stuff, like paying the electricity bills or fetch the laundry clothes. As everyone is so busy with their own business, to ask an Ayi to help do the simple work seems to be effective than doing it by themselves. Companies, whether small or large, has find it very effective to hire Ayi.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Many broker help to connect the Ayi and the host together and charge commission. Some professional Ayi or Express man management company emerges, so it is no longer the personal business of the Ayi or the Express man. It is the same for Safe Guards.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Express man is a frequently used method for e-commerce in Shanghai. Ayi has been a more cost effective way to do many things than IT solution. For example, I once thought of inputting all the ISBN number of the books I have into a database. Besides the system, I need to buy a bar code scanner, which is at least 200 RMB. Later, I found with 200 RMB, I can hire an Ayi to help me do the work for 40 hours. If they are given a computer and 10 minute of training, they can pick up a book, check the ISBN from the book cover and enter the ISBN numbe into my Excel. It only costs several hours. :-D It reminded me the experience of my friend. After he moved to his new apartment, he paid 200 RMB for after-renovation clean up. That morning, 20 Ayi showed up at his door and worked for the whole morning. It was quite amazing.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;实在不想看下去，我写了回复，也许我的发言别人不屑于理会，但是我一定要写。&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;i thought this may be a moving description after seeing title. well,it is no good using this kind of tongue to tell us "amazing" story like hiring ayi as code scanner.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;everyone are struggling for living including u. if rich enough, why not donate like ur boss Bill Gates.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;till now every farmer must hand in 79 yuan as tax per year for country construction instead of 35 yuan from citizens. however, most of the fortune flows to cities like Shanghai so that Shanghaiese or Beijingese can live a seemingly better life just selling and buying houses of their own. and the fact is that there is still no inheritance tax in China.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;they especially their children need helping hands but not putting this story into a kidding joke.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;----a fresh-graduate's way of thinking&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="comments"&gt;Posted by: &lt;b&gt;&lt;a href="http://home.wangjianshuo.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-comments2.cgi?__mode=red&amp;amp;id=11039"&gt;kevin&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt; on March 1, 2005 03:38 AM&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src ="http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/aggbug/1033.aspx" width = "1" height = "1" /&gt;</description></item><item><dc:creator>李文</dc:creator><title>the freight capacity of China railway </title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/955.aspx</link><pubDate>Mon, 21 Feb 2005 02:29:00 GMT</pubDate><guid>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/955.aspx</guid><description>&lt;DIV&gt;groups of figure can say the problem:&lt;BR&gt;China's railways shipped 480 million tons of coal in the first half of this year, up 12.2 percent over the same period last year. Shipment of grain rose 13.1 percent to 55.59 million tons, chemical fertilizer and other materials for agriculture use rose 5.6 percent to 33.33 million tons, and oil rose 12.1 percent to 58.67 million tons, according to the Ministry of Railways.&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;China's railways in operation account for only 6 percent of the world's total, yet it shoulders 25 percent of the freight volume in the world. To date, all the major trunk lines have been operating at full capacity.&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;Due to the serious shortfall in freight capacity, only one third of the freight demand could be met at present, according to the ministry of railway.&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;a series of sepcial measures has been adopted to serve economic macro-control.&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;-- Giving priorities to the transport of such key materials as grain, coal and chemical fertilizer. The ministry has allocated 90 percent of its cargo freight capacity to guarantee the transport of key materials;&lt;BR&gt;-- Optimizing management and further tapping the potentials;&lt;BR&gt;-- Raising train speed and increasing freight load.&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;However,seems that we can do more things if we rely more on shipping by waterway.&amp;nbsp; when we recover the jing-hang canal changjiang river zone.......&lt;/DIV&gt;&lt;img src ="http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/aggbug/955.aspx" width = "1" height = "1" /&gt;</description></item><item><dc:creator>李文</dc:creator><title>Photo story of SISC2004</title><link>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/953.aspx</link><pubDate>Mon, 21 Feb 2005 02:23:00 GMT</pubDate><guid>http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/articles/953.aspx</guid><description>&lt;DIV&gt;made from msn 9&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;background music:&amp;nbsp; graduation&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;author: wen lee&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/DIV&gt;
&lt;DIV&gt;&lt;A href="http://herald.seu.edu.cn/kevin/sisc2004.wmv"&gt;http://herald.seu.edu.cn/kevin/sisc2004.wmv&lt;/A&gt;&lt;/DIV&gt;&lt;img src ="http://www.run2me.com/kevinlee/aggbug/953.aspx" width = "1" height = "1" /&gt;</description></item></channel></rss>
